Unum Capital Trading Desk Research - 01 July 2019

Unum Capital Trading Desk Research - 01 July 2019

Research – 01 July 2019

Lester Davids, Unum Trading Desk

 

Chart Link
1 All Country World Equity Index: The weekly chart of the iShares Trust MSCI ACWI ETF reflects strong price momentum with the ETF breaking and holding above the downward trend line going back to January 2018 in the form of a flat bottomed triangle. https://www.tradingview.com/x/IW2vbEDm/
2 Dow Jones Industrial Average: The persistent test of the overhead resistance level at 26800 may eventually be breached, opening up the way for higher levels on the index (Dow 30000?). Key drivers of the potentially bullish technical setup include:

 

– Monthly chart Stochastic remain in bullish territory.

– Price finding support and rebounding off it’s 20-month exponential moving average.

– RSI pending downward trend line breakout.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0doHzCtq/
3 S&P 500: Following a 6.5% decline during the month of May, June saw a strong rebound to close higher by 6.89%. The monthly rebound, having started just above the 20-month exponential moving average   https://www.tradingview.com/x/ztJTKqkz/
4 Relative Chart: Rand-Platinum vs Rand-Gold. Following the completion of the Head and Shoulder formation, the price has found support on the incline support trend line going back to March 2018. https://www.tradingview.com/x/KuTS1Vla/
5 USDZAR: A massive advance for the Rand from a low of 15.17on 7 June to 14.07 in Sunday evening trade. At current levels, the price trades just above the 4-month trend line support . I am raising the question of the possibility of a head and shoulder formation where a rebound off the trend line could see a ‘right shoulder’ start to develop. https://www.tradingview.com/x/I9WmoaSd/
6 JSE Industrials Index (J257): The index is attempting to break above a 19-month downward trend line, with support around the 76600 level. As per the weekly chart view, the price has regained it’s 20/50 exponential moving averages signifying it’s willingness to continue it’s medium term bullish move. https://www.tradingview.com/x/wwXOx9DY/
7 African Rainbow Minerals: From a technical perspective, I am more inclined to be LONG the share due to it trading above it’s rising 200-day moving average while making higher lows and higher highs. However, should we see the share overshoot in the short term, it would provide an opportunity to potential take a short/sell position with a view that the price could retrace toward the prior resistance trend line going back to March 2016 (just below R170). https://www.tradingview.com/x/aY9xyn4g/
8 Rand / Oil: Following a retracement toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the price has rebounded and is attempting to break above the downward trend line that has been in place since 25 April. This morning’s 2.9% gain sees the price holding just above the 200-day moving average. A break and close above R855 opens up the potential for R920 followed by R960. https://www.tradingview.com/x/bXqrKSPf/
9 USDCAD: Despite Oil’s early session advance, the pair’s 4-hour chart is signaling the potential for a bullish reversal. At 1.3098, both the 4-hr MACD and RSI is printing a  bullish divergence, moving out of oversold territory. If you are able to catch this around current levels, taking a short term view, we could see an intraday rebound to the tune of 45-55 points. https://www.tradingview.com/x/nVSalljk/
10 TFG: Thus far we have had two backtests of the breakout level while the 200-period Bollinger Band has compressed, signaling the potential for an break out of the BB. Over the medium term, we see the 200-day moving average starting to turn up slightly. If we don’t see a full backtest of the trend line, traders may have to grab this one at a higher level (sometimes there are no backtests). https://www.tradingview.com/x/0Odud4ga/
11 An update on the previous GBPCHF and GBPJPY ideas: Both currently advancing following the positive sentiment emanating from the G20 meeting. GBPCHF:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UP7YazT5/

 

GBPJPY: https://www.tradingview.com/x/k7Bo1tIP/

 

12 Update on EXX: The share adding R25 since our last buy/long call toward the end of May (155 to 180). https://www.tradingview.com/x/GNiCc02j/

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