Unum Capital: Trading Desk Research

Unum Capital: Trading Desk Research

Unum Trading Internal Research Chart Link
1. US Dollar Index Futures – Remains the bigger driver going forward. Global portfolio positioning has been skewed toward a weaker US Dollar in favour of EM however we have seen the greenback remain very strong depsite a ‘dovish’ Federal Reserve. As previously highlighted, the Fed cannot afford to have good data emerge since the stance has been set at dovish and the market has gone as far as pricing in rate cuts (1%) chance by 01-May-2019, a 20% chance by 19-June-2019 and a 23% chance by 31-July-2019. Daily Chart: https://invst.ly/am1jf

 

Monthly Chart of US Dollar Index Spot (LT Upward Channel): https://invst.ly/am1kh

2. EURUSD: Making up ~ 62% of the US Dollar Index, it is worthwhile monitoring this pair over the medium term, stepping back from an intraday view. Here, a descending triangle has been building with support at the 1.1199 level being key. A break below brings 1.1123, 1.0859 and 1.0777 into play. https://www.tradingview.com/x/O7NGr1rR/
3. USDZAR: The pair’s bullish reversal is being confirmed by the RSI and MFI moving back into bullish territory while the price regains the short term moving averages 5/20 MA and long term 200-day moving average. https://www.tradingview.com/x/E0c2xnTK/
4. JSE Banks Index (J835) vs All Share Index: Not a great start to the week for the SA Banking Index. Relative to the All Share Index, the price has been rejected at the 200-day moving average and has also developed a bear flag. https://www.tradingview.com/x/BBVG3HH5/
5. JSE Resources Index (J210) v All Share Index: In the ultra short term, the resources index is turning up from an oversold level versus the All Share Index. This is informed by the RSI which trades at two standard deviations below the 200-period moving average. On an historical basis, the see that any print at this level has proven to be an attractive risk-to-reward from an ultra short term perspective – which falls in line with the trading desk’s time horizon. Medium term resource shares have run quite hard and I am considering how a stronger USD may influence commodity price (usually negative for commodity prices). https://www.tradingview.com/x/OxbNemu7/
6. JSE General Retail Index (J537): The short term price action and candle structure remains strong however we are now starting to see the index test the upper boundary of the 2-std deviation as per the Relative Strength Index. The price also remains above the 50-day moving average as well as the 20-day (twenty) moving average which is turning up.     https://www.tradingview.com/x/UIjo23jn/
7. TFG: You will be aware of my previous comments on the share, suggesting a move from below R180 and potential to make a medium term momentum run (based on results have stood out from it’s retail sector peers). In the ultra short term, the share appears ‘strong but stretched’ and I am looking for a back-test of the breakout level. Should we see a pop higher, it may be an opportunity for short term traders to sell/short back to the breakout level. Alternatively, those who wish to keep the bigger picture in mind would wait for a pullback to enter a long. https://www.tradingview.com/x/6usmkAZu/
8. Impala Platinum: Could we be seeing a short term break up of the sideways consolidation that has been in place since 20-March? Lower time frame showing strength. A break up may see the previous high of 6935c being tested. Last close: 6285c. https://www.tradingview.com/x/SJ5wC4tu/
9. Brait: Whilst the share has traded below it’s downward trendline in place since November 2018, a closer look at the technical indicators (MACD) sees a bullish divergence starting to signal a potential reversal. Traders should also monitor for a potential RSI break up a move into the bullish range of the bollinger band that has been applied. Levels to be confirmed as price action is monitored. https://www.tradingview.com/x/u2lZGwBQ/
10. MTN: The share has made a strong advance from my previous buy level of 9247c on 9 April. At the time, the target was the ‘gap’ at 10574c which we saw being closed yesterday. As per the daily chart, the RSI is strong while trading in ‘overbought’ terrtory. Additionally, the downward trend line going back to 30 April 2015 may act as a temporary resistance level. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xl2nZH9M/
11. USDCAD: Big break of a nearly 7-week sideways consolidation. Potential to test prior swing high near 1.3664. Last close: 1.3446.      https://www.tradingview.com/x/FZszms3t/
12. Nikkei 225 Futures (Short/Sell Setup)

Bearish engulfing candle being printed on the index today.

– Pending MACD bearish crossover with histogram losing momentum.

– Sharp back-test of channel

– A stronger JPY is negative for the Nikkei.        

https://invst.ly/am1ig
Unum Capital’s Internal Trading Desk Research is a collection of general research, technical and fundamental observations, charts of interest, key technical levels as well as trade ideas that is produced to assists traders on the desk in identifying money-making opportunities. These ideas may be immediately actionable or worth placing on the radar for a potential trade at a future date. Please note that trade ideas (including key levels) are subject to change as new information becomes available and price action changes.

 

Please chat to the Unum Capital Trading Desk to take advantage of any trading opportunities.  

e-mail: clientservices@unum.co.za

Tel: 011 384 2923 

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