Unum Capital: US Dollar / Rand, JSE Top 40 + Trading Opportunities

Unum Capital: US Dollar / Rand, JSE Top 40 + Trading Opportunities

Dear Trader

This morning I’m taking a look at the US Dollar vs the South African Rand, the JSE Top 40 Index, Absa Group, Nedbank, Vodacom, Clicks as well as offshore payment services provider, Visa Inc. Before I delve into these, a quick update on a few recent ideas as at the close of 29/03/2019.

– Long Shoprite (SHP): +500c Profit Banked
– Short Kumba Iron Ore: In the money by 570c
– Short BTI: Currently out of the money by 200c however it’s not too late too participate. Get in touch with the trading desk before the opportunity passes. 
– Short Brent Crude Oil: Out of the money

#1. JSE Top 40: The index has rebounded from the lower boundary of the channel, adding just over 1200 points from the low of Monday 25/03. The first resistance is the swing highs of 50478 followed by 50756 while a strong break above these levels would see 51000 being tested. On the downside, a break below 49200 would signal a change in the short and medium term trend. Click Here to See Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/b2zP2kyK/
#2. Absa Group: A number of drivers lead me to believe that the share is possibly due a short term rebound. After slipping below it’s 200-period moving average on it’s hourly chart, the price has formed a 5-day base, with the Relative Strength Index in bull territory while the ‘money flow’ suggest some buying pressure. Should we see a print below 14970c, traders could look to take a buy/long position with a stop-loss of 14650c and a target of 15700c (+730c profit potential). Click Here to See Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/ekpVM4VO/
#3. Nedbank Group: The share has consolidated at roughly the R248 to R250 level since 20 March. According to the technical indicators and candle structure, traders may be afforded the opportunity to potentially participate in a short term rebound. Here’s where I see the opportunity: buy if it trades below R246 (horizontal support and near upward trend line). Stop-loss of R242 and take profit target of R258. https://www.tradingview.com/x/hVSO8eLi/
#4. Clicks Group: The share is testing a short term downward trend line breakout however I am taking caution to see that traders do not enter prematurely. To map out a scenario, I am looking for a short term pullback to (perhaps 18250c?) before a breakout target the top of the channel (above 19100c). For a more specific level (to avoid getting in too early), get in touch with the trading desk. Alternatively, I would look to short/sell a major bounce. Click Here to See Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/SQMbs6tx/
 
#5. Vodacom Group: VOD currently trades near the lower boundary of the channel that has been in place since 24 January. Since 19 March the price has been in a short term downward trend and may potentially offer an opportunity to play a short term bullish reversal. Should we see a print below 110.40, traders could look to take a buy/long position in anticipation of a short term rebound, targeting the R114.20 level and utilizing a stop-loss of 108.70. Click Here to See Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/bb58hrFy/
#6. Visa Inc: At a price-to-earnings ratio of 33 times, a softer global economy as  well as increased sector competition (e.g. the Apple Card), Visa shares  appear priced for perfection. Technically, the share trades well above  it’s 200-day moving while the Relative Strength Index is losing upward  momentum. Traders should take caution that the new high (breakout on  Friday 29/03) is not a flase break. Based on the aforementioned factors, I am monitoring the share for a short/sell. Click Here to See Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/clX2CBat/
 
Please note that the aforementioned ideas represent short term trading opportunities where prices, including buy and selling levels are subject to rapid change. In addition, the long term technical outlook may differ due to company and sector specific factors (e.g. valuation and country credit risk). For a more detailed fundamental and technical analysis on the long term outlooks or to have our traders execute these ideas, contact the trading desk or open an account today.       


Please chat to the Unum Capital Trading Desk to take advantage of any trading opportunities.
All the best,
Lester Davids
Unum Trading Desk Analyst
e-mail: clientservices@unum.co.za
Tel: 011 384 2923

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